Financial Markets and Retail Construction Cycles

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2003

Publication Title

Journal of Commercial Banking and Finance

ISSN

1939-2230

Abstract

Capital markets, interest rates and real estate construction may reflect interrelated cyclical activity. Does a cycle exist for retail construction? If so, is it stable (convergent) across MSAs? Do national business cycle movements in capital markets and interest rates have a significant influence on retail construction? If so, are capital market variables important for the retail cycle? This paper presents evidence of a convergent retail construction cycle across 58 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). After removing the effects of local MSA level variables, household formations, retail sales and short-term autocorrelation, the residuals are analyzed for cyclical behavior. The retail construction cycle is then modeled as a function of capital markets. The overall explanatory power of the local MSA level variables and capital markets is then analyzed. While significant, the explanatory power of the capital market variables is found to be slight compared to the local MSA level variables.

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