Term of Award
Spring 1998
Degree Name
Master of Science in Applied Mathematics
Document Type and Release Option
Thesis (restricted to Georgia Southern)
Department
Department of Mathematics
Committee Chair
John W. Davenport
Committee Member 1
Lila F. Roberts
Committee Member 2
Eric T. Funasaki
Abstract
The spread of some childhood diseases such as chickenpox, measles, mumps, and rubella can be modeled by a system of ordinary differential equations. The total population, assumed to be constant, is subdivided into four categories: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. The coefficient of the interaction term between susceptible and infected individuals, the contact rate, measures the contagiousness of the disease. A system with a constant contact rate is considered but the results are inconsistent with available data. A system with a sinusoidal contact rate is considered which numerically yields both periodic and chaotic solutions. While this behavior mimics that of the available data, the seasonal forcing is too great. Finally we consider a system with a piecewise linear contact rate and compare its results to the sinusoidal system. Erratic fluctuations are achieved in the piecewise system at levels of seasonal forcing lower than required in the sinusoidal system.
Copyright
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Recommended Citation
Park, Thomas Reed III, "Alternative Forms of Seasonal Variation in Childhood Epidemics" (1998). Legacy ETDs. 500.
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/etd_legacy/500
