Term of Award
Summer 2019
Degree Name
Master of Science in Mathematics (M.S.)
Document Type and Release Option
Thesis (restricted to Georgia Southern)
Copyright Statement / License for Reuse
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Department
Department of Mathematical Sciences
Committee Chair
Divine Wanduku
Committee Member 1
Broderick Oluyede
Committee Member 2
Ionut Iacob
Abstract
Typhoid fever is ranked in the top deadliest diseases globally caused by a bacterium Salmonella Typhi. According to a 2017 CDC report, about 26 million and 5 million cases of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, respectively, occur worldwide annually, and result in about 215000 deaths. In this study, we derive a stochastic dynamic model for the dynamics of Typhoid fever in a closed human population. We consider artificial immunity for the disease via vaccination, and natural immunity via recovery. Trinomial transition probabilities are derived for the Markov process for various scenarios of the epidemic. We conduct a sensitivity analysis for the epidemic model and utilize inferential statistical techniques to evaluate the interrelationship between vaccination and infection, and to determine and evaluate other epidemiological features of the epidemic process. The idea of maximum likelihood estimation for vital model parameters is introduced. Several numerical simulation examples are studied.
Recommended Citation
Jegede, Omotomilola Onaopemipo, "Modelling The Stochastic Dynamics of Typhoid Fever and Statistical Determination of Epidemiological Outcomes" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1977.
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/etd/1977
Research Data and Supplementary Material
No
