Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Authors

• Yuan Bai, University of Hong Kong
• Zhanwei Du, University of Hong Kong
• Lin Wang, University of CambridgeFollow
• Eric H. Y. Lau, University of Hong Kong
• Isaac Fung, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
• Petter Holme, Aalto UniversityFollow
• Ben Cowling, University of Hong KongFollow
• Alison Galvani, Yale UniversityFollow
• Robert Krug, University of Texas at AustinFollow
• Lauren Ancel Meyers, The University of Texas at AustinFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-5-2024

Publication Title

Emerging Infectious Diseases

DOI

10.3201/eid3002.230835

Abstract

We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62–$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49–$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

Comments

Georgia Southern University faculty member, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung co-authored Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States.

Recommended Citation

Bai, Yuan, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H. Y. Lau, Isaac Fung, Petter Holme, Ben Cowling, Alison Galvani, Robert Krug, Lauren Ancel Meyers. 2024. "Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States." Emerging Infectious Diseases, 30 (2): Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. doi: 10.3201/eid3002.230835
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bee-facpubs/412

Copyright

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