Time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in Georgia, USA, March 2-November 20, 2020

Authors

Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Gerardo Chowell, Georgia State UniversityFollow
Jessica S. Schwind, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Randall Ford, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Sylvia Ofori, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Chigozie Alexandra Ogwara, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Margaret R. Davies, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Terrence Jacobs, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
Chi-Ngai Cheung, Emory UniversityFollow
Logan Cowan, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Andrew Hansen, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow
Isaac Fung, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public HealthFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-17-2021

Publication Title

The Permanente Journal

DOI

10.7812/TPP/20.232

Abstract

Background: In 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 impacted Georgia, USA. Georgia announced a state-wide shelter-in-place on April 2 and partially lifted restrictions on April 27. We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers (R_t) of COVID-19 in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and environs from March 2, 2020, to November 20, 2020.

Methods: We analyzed the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County and its surrounding counties, and estimated R_t using the R package EpiEstim. We used a 9-day correction for the date of report to analyze the data by assumed date of infection.

Results: The median R_t estimate in Georgia dropped from between 2 and 4 in mid-March to < 2 in late March to around 1 from mid-April to November. Regarding Metro Atlanta, Rt fluctuated above 1.5 in March and around 1 since April. In Dougherty County, the median R_t declined from around 2 in late March to 0.32 on April 26. Then, R_t fluctuated around 1 in May through November. Counties surrounding Dougherty County registered an increase in R_t estimates days after a superspreading event occurred in the area.

Conclusions: In Spring 2020, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 transmission in Georgia declined likely because of social distancing measures. However, because restrictions were relaxed in late April and elections were conducted in November, community transmission continued, with R_t fluctuating around 1 across Georgia, Metro Atlanta, and Dougherty County as of November 2020. The superspreading event in Dougherty County affected surrounding areas, indicating the possibility of local transmission in neighboring counties

Comments

© 2019 The Permanente Press

Recommended Citation

Muniz-Rodriguez, Kamalich, Gerardo Chowell, Jessica S. Schwind, Randall Ford, Sylvia Ofori, Chigozie Alexandra Ogwara, Margaret R. Davies, Terrence Jacobs, Chi-Ngai Cheung, Logan Cowan, Andrew Hansen, Isaac Fung. 2021. "Time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in Georgia, USA, March 2-November 20, 2020." The Permanente Journal: 1-12: The Permanente Press. doi: 10.7812/TPP/20.232
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bee-facpubs/190