Georgia Healthy Beaches Nowcast: Development of a Predictive Model for Bacteria Levels at Tybee Island Beaches
Document Type
Presentation
Presentation Date
11-13-2023
Abstract or Description
Several million locals and tourists visit Georgia’s coast each year for recreation, swimming, and fishing. Fecal indicator bacteria monitoring of beach waters are done weekly, using a technology that takes 36 hours to report the results to inform the public. This approach leaves several days where harmful exposures to high levels of bacteria or other pollutants could be undetected.
Predictive aquatic bacterial models are promising tools as early warning systems to prevent from exposure to waterborne pathogens in beaches. Using historical environmental and water quality data collected from Georgia’s Coastal Resources Division (CRD) and the University of Georgia, this project lays the groundwork for a predictive model to fill in the data gaps on the coast and utilize existing routine monitoring data to predict future exposures. This study investigates rainfall as a predictor of fecal indicator bacteria at Tybee Island, one of the most popular beaches in Georgia.
Weekly collected samples collected from 2004 to 2023 across five beaches at Tybee Island were analyzed for relationship between three-day rainfall cumulative total and fecal indicator bacteria levels. Pearson correlations ranged from 0.098 to 0.004, and all results were significant (p<0.05, n=4750). Sites with lowest correlation were more influenced by either point or non-point source pollution, while higher correlations pointed to less populated beaches where rainfall might have carried runoff to the beach.
The results of this study informs impact of rainfall as a predictor for future predictive models. Additional analyses are ongoing to include other environmental factors such as tides, winds, temperature, and salinity. Collaboration with the CRD and health department will allow for co-developing an effective health promotion strategy for beachgoers and better protect their health in the future.
Sponsorship/Conference/Institution
American Public Health Association Annual Meeting
Location
Atlanta, GA
Recommended Citation
Roberson, Luke, Asli Aslan.
2023.
"Georgia Healthy Beaches Nowcast: Development of a Predictive Model for Bacteria Levels at Tybee Island Beaches."
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Presentations.
Presentation 340.
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bee-facpres/340
Additional Information
Georgia Southern University faculty member, Asli Aslan co-presented Georgia Healthy Beaches Nowcast: Development of a Predictive Model for Bacteria Levels at Tybee Island Beaches in the American Public Health Association Annual Meeting, November 2023.