Presentation Title
An SEIR Model of Potential Vaccination Program in the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola Epidemic
Document Type
Presentation
Presentation Date
1-22-2015
Abstract or Description
The March 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and Liberia has significantly strained public health systems in both countries. Current epidemic models focus on non-vaccine treatment interventions. We modeled the potential consequences of future vaccine deployment in Sierra Leone, specifically the relationship between vaccination rates, date of commencement of a vaccination program, vaccine efficacy, and epidemic size. As a baseline model of the epidemic in the absence of control measures, we utilized a version of the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model utilized by Chowell et al. to model Ebola outbreaks in the Congo parameterized using September 2014 estimates from the WHO. We utilized a model developed by Althaus using October 2014 epidemic data as a baseline for epidemic sizes in the presence of non-vaccination interventions. We plan to investigate whether the deployment of a moderately effective vaccine at a high vaccination rate can yield a similar reduction in deaths as a highly effective vaccine at a smaller vaccination rate.
Preliminary data utilizing the WHO baseline model, assuming the start of a vaccination program concurrent with the start of the epidemic in Sierra Leone, found that at a vaccine efficacy of 30%, a vaccination rate of 1000 individuals per day results in a 64% reduction of cases by November 2014. Data modeled using vaccination rates ranging from 1000 individual per day to 8000 individuals per day, vaccine efficacy values ranging from 30% to 70% efficacy, and various vaccination program commencement dates will be presented.
Sponsorship/Conference/Institution
Modeling the Spread of Ebola in West Africa Workshop
Location
Atlanta, GA
Recommended Citation
Subramanian, Rahul, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung.
2015.
"An SEIR Model of Potential Vaccination Program in the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola Epidemic."
Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Presentations.
Presentation 30.
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bee-facpres/30