Forecasting Longitudinal Trends in Substance Use Disorder Burden and Human Capital Attrition: The Impact of Unregulated Retail Alcohol and Hemp Environments, 2025–2035.

Faculty Mentor

Dr. James Thomas

Location

Russell Union Room 2052

Type of Research

Completed

Session Format

Oral Presentation

College

Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health

Department

Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences

Abstract

As the retail landscape for intoxicants undergoes a structural transformation, this study aims to forecast the public health and economic burden of substance use disorders (SUD) through 2035, specifically examining the role of unregulated retail availability in high-ABV alcohol and high-potency hemp-derived cannabinoids. Utilizing preliminary data from the 2025 National Retail Alcohol Data (RAD) survey and a Georgia-based hemp assessment, this research employs a hybrid biostatistical framework. Methodology includes an integrated ARIMA-Markov Chain modeling approach and machine learning (XGBoost) to analyze trajectories of use among adolescents and young adults aged 18–25. Preliminary surveys indicate that ultra-low-cost alcohol ($0.18 per standard drink) and non-compliant hemp products (300 times the psychotropic threshold) have significantly lowered the barriers to high-intensity intoxication. Biostatistical projections suggest that without targeted retail regulation, the national SUD prevalence currently affecting 21% of the college-aged population will see a sustained surge, exacerbating the existing treatment gap where fewer than 5% of those meeting diagnostic criteria receive care. This surge is predicted to result in a measurable decline in long-term employability due to the permanent disruption of neurotypical brain development during the critical prefrontal cortex maturation phase. The analysis further explores the "Sober Curious" movement as a socioeconomic bifurcation, where "volume softness" in traditional markets is offset by an "intensity surge" in unregulated retail sectors. The study concludes that aggressive environmental interventions at the retail level are essential to preserve the human capital of the 2035 workforce.

Program Description

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Start Date

4-23-2026 2:00 PM

End Date

4-23-2026 2:15 PM

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Apr 23rd, 2:00 PM Apr 23rd, 2:15 PM

Forecasting Longitudinal Trends in Substance Use Disorder Burden and Human Capital Attrition: The Impact of Unregulated Retail Alcohol and Hemp Environments, 2025–2035.

Russell Union Room 2052

As the retail landscape for intoxicants undergoes a structural transformation, this study aims to forecast the public health and economic burden of substance use disorders (SUD) through 2035, specifically examining the role of unregulated retail availability in high-ABV alcohol and high-potency hemp-derived cannabinoids. Utilizing preliminary data from the 2025 National Retail Alcohol Data (RAD) survey and a Georgia-based hemp assessment, this research employs a hybrid biostatistical framework. Methodology includes an integrated ARIMA-Markov Chain modeling approach and machine learning (XGBoost) to analyze trajectories of use among adolescents and young adults aged 18–25. Preliminary surveys indicate that ultra-low-cost alcohol ($0.18 per standard drink) and non-compliant hemp products (300 times the psychotropic threshold) have significantly lowered the barriers to high-intensity intoxication. Biostatistical projections suggest that without targeted retail regulation, the national SUD prevalence currently affecting 21% of the college-aged population will see a sustained surge, exacerbating the existing treatment gap where fewer than 5% of those meeting diagnostic criteria receive care. This surge is predicted to result in a measurable decline in long-term employability due to the permanent disruption of neurotypical brain development during the critical prefrontal cortex maturation phase. The analysis further explores the "Sober Curious" movement as a socioeconomic bifurcation, where "volume softness" in traditional markets is offset by an "intensity surge" in unregulated retail sectors. The study concludes that aggressive environmental interventions at the retail level are essential to preserve the human capital of the 2035 workforce.