Term of Award

Summer 2013

Degree Name

Master of Science in Applied Engineering (M.S.A.E.)

Document Type and Release Option

Thesis (restricted to Georgia Southern)

Department

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Committee Chair

Biswanath Samanta

Committee Member 1

Anoop Desai

Committee Member 2

Yong Zhu

Abstract

This work presents a study on prediction of university enrollment using three computational intelligence (CI) techniques. The enrollment prediction has been considered as a form of time series prediction using CI techniques that include an artificial neural network (ANN), a neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and an aggregated fuzzy time series model. A novel form of ANN, namely, single multiplicative neuron (SMN), as an alternative to traditional multi-layer perceptron (MLP), has been used for time series prediction. A variation of population based heuristic optimization approach, namely, co-operative particle swarm optimization (COPSO), has been used to estimate the parameters for the SMN, the combination is termed here as COPSO-SMN. The second CI technique used for time series prediction is adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which combines the advantages of ANN and fuzzy logic (FL). The third technique is based on an aggregated fuzzy time series model that utilizes both global trend of the past data and the local fuzzy fluctuations. The first two CI models have been developed for one-step-ahead prediction of time series using the data of the current time and three previous time steps. The models based on these three techniques have been trained using a previously published dataset. The models have been further trained and tested using enrollment data of Georgia Southern University for the period of 1924-2012. The training and test performances of all three CI techniques have been compared for the datasets. The economic impact of Georgia Southern University on the surrounding region has been analyzed. A correlation between the enrollment data and the economic impact of Georgia Southern University has been studied.

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